MIKE BURKE
Allegany Communications Sports
As of Thursday evening, the Baltimore Ravens were a 9.5 to 10-point favorite over the Pittsburgh Steelers for Saturday night’s wildcard playoff game, which many of us find to be ridiculous.
Yes, it’s understood that those big, beautiful buildings in Las Vegas did not rise from stupidity. It is also acknowledged that the AFC North champ Ravens earned home-field advantage and deserve to be favored after overtaking the slumping Steelers over the last four weeks of the regular season. But by 10 points? Against the Pittsburgh Steelers? In the playoffs?
First of all, Baltimore slot receiver Zay Flowers, who suffered a sprained right knee last Saturday against the Cleveland Browns, has been ruled out for this Saturday, which changes things quite a bit, for not only is he the Ravens’ leading receiver, he is their biggest big-play threat. He stretches the field and has to be accounted for at all times, which opens the rest of the field for the other Ravens receivers, not to mention the running game (hint, hint).
Secondly, while the Ravens evened the season series with the Steelers in December with a 34-17 win, some of us aren’t convinced that removes the Steelers and their head coach Mike Tomlin completely from the heads of the Ravens and their head coach John Harbaugh.
Yes, the Steelers have been a mess for the past month, losing four in a row to the best teams on their schedule, including the Ravens, but they have still won eight of the last 10 games with the Ravens – usually by the Ravens’ undoing – while Tomlin carries a 21-16 career mark against Baltimore.
That said, Tomlin’s teams also own an 8-10 mark in the postseason with one Super Bowl title (which is never enough in Pittsburgh) and since winning the 2010 AFC championship have gone 3-9 in the postseason, including four losses in a row.
Conversely, Ravens teams coached by John Harbaugh are 12-10 in the postseason with one Super Bowl title, yet the Ravens franchise has a rather ominous history with night home playoffs games, not to mention the month of January in general, home or away.
Neither of which is here nor there, just as the Steelers’ four-game losing streak and the Ravens’ four-game winning streak to end the regular season matter no longer.
Nothing will matter Saturday in Baltimore amidst snowy, windy and sub-freezing conditions. This is the one-and-done. It doesn’t matter if a team swooped into the playoffs or slinked into the playoffs, every team is in it to win it, one shot at a time.
The wind will be a detriment to the Ravens passing game, but not so much to the small-ball Steelers, who dink and dunk, run the ball and shoot for the occasional home run with tight end Pat Freirmuth and wide receiver George Pickens.
The Steelers also have a nasty defense that is made for the conditions that will take place in Baltimore, just as the Ravens do with their running game with Derrick Henry, who has been most effective during his career in cold weather.
The teams have grown to know each other inside and out over the past 17 years under Harbaugh and Tomlin, so aside from a wrinkle here (Justin Fields at QB) and there, there should be no strategic surprises.
For the Ravens, the key will be to find an offensive flow. For the Steelers, it will be to play ugly, keep it close and allow the Ravens to lose the game on their own, as they have done often against Pittsburgh in the past.
Also, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, Harbaugh and Tomlin have all been under the gun in recent years for their postseason shortcomings, and understand this is something the players on both teams are aware of.
The Ravens have the playmakers in Jackson, Henry, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to win, even without Flowers.
If Jackson and Henry play anywhere near the way they’ve played this season and don’t turn the ball over, as they did in the game in Pittsburgh, the Steelers offense as-is will not be able to keep up; which is why Harbaugh should finally take free points (easy and early field goals) and stick his analytics card where the sun don’t shine.
The Pittsburgh pass rush and big-play capability will keep this a close game, but Baltimore is just a better team – at least a far more talented team.
The Ravens were able to figure out their early struggles in all three phases of the game. Now all that’s left is for them to figure out January.
Mike Burke writes about sports and other stuff for Allegany Communications. He began covering sports for the Prince George’s Sentinel in 1981 and joined the Cumberland Times-News sports staff in 1984, serving as sports editor for over 30 years. Contact him at [email protected]. Follow him on X @MikeBurkeMDT